VCP faces democracy or doom

Deepening divisions inside Vietnam's secretive communist leadership have burst into the open with warnings from three respected party members that Hanoi must adopt "radical political reforms" or face collapse.

Their comments, in three separate documents obtained by the Financial Times, paint a bleak picture of the future of one of the world's last communist governments, buffeted by recent peasant unrest, and blighted by economic stagnation and policy paralysis in the face of the Asian financial crisis.

Tran Do, a 74-year-old former army general and party ideology chief, made a sweeping appeal for press freedom, freer elections, the abandonment of state-sector control over the economy and a reduction of the communist party's pervasive influence in society. "Our economic reforms cry out for an accompanying and vigorous political reform programme. Without [political reform] the economic reforms will hit a dead end . . . By concentrating all power into the hands of leading party organs, we are making the party regress and degenerate. . . possibly leading to social explosions," he said, in a 13-page letter to the party leadership.

Gen. Do's comments come as factional infighting in the party intensifies over Hanoi's failure to reconcile a decade of economic liberalization with continued political control. So-called doi moi reforms have been stalled for two years as ambivalence has dominated party policy. Foreign investment has plunged and Hanoi is under pressure to devalue its currency.

In a section headed "What Is To Be Done?" - echoing a political tract written by Lenin at the start of the Russian revolution - Gen. Do urged the party to "democratize" to ensure the party's survival. He said that the market economy was incompatible with "socialist orientation", a phrase that strikes at the heart of party policy.

The two others letters, one from outspoken establishment critic Phan Dinh Dieu, a mathematician, and the other from a former Communist Party central committee member Hoang Huu Nhan, painted a similar picture of potential doom. "The party should have pushed more strongly to renovate itself to meet the demands of the market economy and for a democratic society," Dieu's statement said. "But, regrettably, in the name of maintaining political stability, it continues its monopoly on leadership."

Nhan's statement went further, accusing the former Communist Party Secretary General, Do Muoi, of impeding reforms by controlling decision-making at the party's central committee and politburo levels.

"Comrade Do Muoi's final opinion is the basis of all decisions, despite disagreement from many other comrades," he said. "If the party continues to build its monopoly on leadership through dictatorial power, it's hard for the country to move forward." None of the three men could be contacted for comment. Political analysts said their remarks amounted to a clear, but seldom publicly aired statement of concern by establishment liberals about the need for urgent new reforms.

"You have to look at the timing of their remarks," said an analyst who declined to be identified.

"They have an opportunity at present to write these things because the party is openly examining itself over the question of recent unrests. But they also want to test reaction from the new leadership and especially the party chief."

Vietnam appointed a new party chief, Lieutenant-General Le Kha Phieu, in December, to succeed Muoi, although the former leader retains considerable influence through his position as an adviser.

The change to the country's top leadership position coincided with party moves to tackle corruption-related unrest in at least one northern province, and concern over recent clashes between Catholic communities and police in the country's south.

"The current situation is unacceptable, when a whole political system from the highest to lowest levels is powerless to deal with any negativity, including drug addition and superstition," Nhan's letter said.

Over the past few weeks, Vietnamese overseas have been organizing protests to the White House as President Clinton is preparing to waive the Jackson-Vanik requirement in trade with Hanoi. They argue that Clinton should require Hanoi to make human rights improvements and allow greater political freedom before he waives the Jackson-Vanik Amendment.

"This is a warning. The party is at a crossroads. There's pressure from the people and there's pressure from abroad," said one retired party member. "It has come just in time."

(Sources: "Vietnam reform call hints at spits" by Jeremy Grant in Hanoi, Feb. 10, 1998 of the Financial Times - London; and Reuters' "Hanoi says collapse warning normal" on Feb. 11, 1998)